Sunday, February 17, 2019

The Cost Of Terror


Till the 1970s and even till the mid 1980s we were in an age of innocence. People could walk into any building, govt or private, without being intercepted. There were no check posts, barricades, metal detectors or X-ray machines. There were no security checks at the airports even till the 1990s. At the most, air travellers had to identify their checked-in baggage placed outside the terminal before being loaded on to the aircraft. Residential societies didn’t have watchmen. The most they had was a night-watchman. There were no regular beat-cops in most places. All this changed only after the Kashmir ethnic-cleansing of KPs in early 1990 and then Kargil war, 9/11 and the attack on Parliament in December 2013. Today, almost every major building – govt or private, has security checks, metal detectors and electronic surveillance. There is a cost to all this – a heavy cost – to individuals, private and public entities and to the country as a whole.

PM Modi is not entirely forthcoming and accurate when he says the Army has been given a “free hand”. He has made this statement repeatedly and it is somewhat deceptive. What exactly is this free hand? That the army can do anything with no questions asked? Or does it mean that they can respond to a conflict situation as they deem fit? Does it mean they can undertake hot-pursuit of terrorists across the border? Does it mean the army can bomb or attack enemy assets and hideouts of their own free will? This is a grey area that the PM has introduced which mostly means nothing. The army cannot cross borders or attack enemy camps without Cabinet and govt approval. Secondly, the army is not protected from their acts of defence or punishment if this so called “free hand” is indeed a reality. The case of Major Gogoi, who used a human-shield for safe transit of his group, is a glaring example. He was littered with cases and HR bodies wanting him punished:
Major Gogoi was indicted in another case for staying with some person which is unrelated to the above incident. In yet another case, over 300 officers of the army had petitioned the SC to seek protection from FIRs being filed against them for actions during combat or conflict under AFSPA. This petition was filed out of “FEAR” of prosecution for actions that may be legitimate and sometimes excessive. In December 2018 the SC rejected their plea:
Two of the army men are facing murder charges. There is no denying that there are trigger-happy individuals in the army too who may commit excesses. But the answer to that is complaints and prosecution by the Army Courts and not by Civil courts. When civil courts can frequently intervene then there is no question of “free hand” as Modi keeps asserting. Our army men do not enjoy immunity as such. Even otherwise, they are constantly being questioned by HR agencies and the Congress had gone to the length of calling the Army Chief “Sadak ka Gunda”. Modi HIDES behind this charade of “free hand” to army and thereby absolves himself of any responsibility for the regular terrorist-attacks in Kashmir and conveniently passes it on to the army. This has to stop and PM Modi must clearly take responsibility and outline the strategies and tactics to end the terror-menace.

What we have become immune to is the huge cost the negligence of every govt to this menace is heaped on the country. This had struck me quite some time ago but security being an important feature of normal life now I believed there isn’t much to look into this. It came as a surprise to me when I read one day that Mohan Bhagwat, the RSS chief, has 60 CISF security personnel guarding him round the clock. That could possibly be 20 men in each 8-hour shift. And Bhagwat is not any kind of top level govt functionary or head. Of course, Bhagwat does face threats and that is what should force us to ask the question- how did we come to this state where many non-govt, non-uniformed individuals also face a serious threat?

India has no published statistics on the cost of terror. There is no document available that has information on the cost we incur owing to security expense for protection against terrorists. Govt apart, the number of private security service providers has grown from a few in the 1970s to thousands currently. India is the highest employer of private security personnel at 7 Mn and by 2020 this figure is expected to double according MoneyControl. This, indeed, is a huge cost we pay for terrorism:
Of course, this is good employment for many, including ex-Army men and most of those security services are, indeed, being operated by ex-Army officers. Doesn’t take Einstein to figure out that cost of security of our President, PM, Ministers and many MLAs and MPs would be astronomical. I do not have the data and I couldn’t find it anywhere as an overall picture. The high cost of internal security is reflected in our MHA budget. From 61.4K crores in 2014-15 to 83.8K crores in 2017-18 according to this Defence Institute:
 
This is not merely the escalating cost of terror but proof of the political pussyfooting and pusillanimity. The human cost of the lives lost is incalculable. But shameless politicians sucking up to stone-pelters, political appeasement of Muslims and other vote-bank considerations has rendered our fight against terrorists the most comic nonsense that one will ever see on earth. One hopes this will change and I hope PM Modi has learned his lessons. There cannot be any sympathy for stone pelters and there cannot be any mercy for those supporting terrorists. Otherwise, the unknown cost being heaped upon the country will go up dramatically apart from the immeasurable cost of human lives and destruction of property.

It is mind-boggling that apart from security to people, govt and govt officials and installations, we have to also bear a heavy cost of protecting the terrorists. The 26/11 terrorist, Ajmal Kasab, is reported to have cost us 31 crores in total. And the number of commandos to protect this terrorist appears to be more than those assigned to a top minister or even the PM or President:
The US war against terrorism includes cost of full-fledged wars in Afghanistan and Iraq apart from their domestic security costs. George Bush had set up a new department of the Homeland Security and passed the Patriot Act as anti-terror measures and suspension of certain freedoms during investigations. Here is a site that measures the cost of security against terrorism in the US. Please note that this is not static information. This site refreshes itself every nano-second and changes numbers which mostly sends the cost upward:
Yet another site has published the statistics on the growth of anti-terrorism spend by the US from 2001 to 2018. In this excerpt I have removed intervening years from 2009 to 2015 to keep the image as small and relevant as possible:
From $31Bn in 2001 to $2125Bn in 2018. I am sure India would have also seen dramatic increase in our terror-costs from 2001 onward, after the attack on Parliament and various other terror attacks but no data is available anywhere. The GOI must start publishing such information so that citizens know how much of their money is going to protect who. Of course, RTI applications can reveal such data in bits and pieces but not the whole picture.

There are other costs to terrorism too. Investments stop in regions where terrorism is a serious threat. To the exemplary credit of PM Modi and ModiSarkar, terrorist attacks in India (other than Kashmir) have dramatically reduced. There is a dramatic decrease in Naxal violence too and that must be recognised as a great achievement. Otherwise, the naxal-infested areas were deprived of investments and development. That is changing. In Europe, Britain and France are paying a heavy cost by not confronting Islamic terrorism. UK lost 3.5Bn Euros worth of business after attacks in 2017 alone. France suffered the biggest loss of 43Bn Euros over a decade followed by Spain with a loss of 40Bn. The overall loss through terrorism for EU is estimated at 180Bn Euros between 2004 and 2016. Fortunately, India has not been affected that severely as it remains the most growing economy and most parts are now safer under this govt.

In 2017, I wrote an article “Kashmir Profits Traitors”. We have all kinds of traitors and terrorist-sympathisers who profit from terrorism. Every exploit of Barkha Dutt valley was suspected to be mischievous reporting and only Darth Vader knows who profits from it. There are others like Shekhar Gupta and moronic Rudaalis, like Prashant Bhushan and Bollymorons, whose hearts bleed for terrorists. As a consequence, agencies like Stratfor fund Shekhar Gupta, NGOs get foreign funding from abroad. Some even collect money for terrorists and make it a great theatre for the world to tarnish India. Needless to say, almost all Sickular parties use terrorism to profit electorally. This Kashmir nonsense is purely the gift of the Nehru-Gandhi clan to India. We have been paying a high cost on terrorism right from 1947. Mahatma tactics won’t work against terrorism and PM Modi should learn that sooner than later.

From the Himalayas to our sea-shores to our land-borders, terrorism inflicts a heavy economic cost on India. No country faces such threats from all sides and from within. Shockingly and surprisingly, I am not aware of any economist or financial analyst researching deep into this aspect. Govt doesn’t put out any figures either. Human loss, property loss, opportunities lost – all must probably add up to a huge amount. I don’t have any figure on this economic cost but would put a wild guesstimate at around 2 lakh crores per annum. This is what the enemy wants. The killing of Jawans and civilians, destruction of property and infrastructure is a visible aspect of terrorism. The enemy quietly and silently bleeds our economy too.

Now that the Pulwama attack has consumed 44 of our innocent Jawans there has to be a dramatic change in tactics. “Free hand” to army must indeed MEAN “Free hand”. Stone pelters are the recruiting campus for terrorists and they too should be designated terrorists. No mercy, no sympathy and no opposition to be brooked from any quarter. Pass any law and ordinance that may be required to combat the terrorists. HR agencies or NGOs creating nuisance should be outlawed and prosecuted. Our Jawans and human bodies bleed through terrorism and that is a VISIBLE shocker to all of us. But there is a huge economic price and cost we are paying for failure against terrorism every single day. This hidden cost is in terms of economy, freedoms and immeasurable human cost. This has to change and it had better change immediately. At this juncture in our journey, I don’t see anyone better capable of handling the challenge than PM Modi. But he needs to act assertively.




 

14 comments:

  1. Modi govt is not serious.
    We kill terrorists,
    Pakistan kills our brothers in army.

    When will our govt give orders to kill pakistan's armymen.

    Where is free hand?
    Why no shoot at sight on stone pelters.
    The same BJP govt shot 36 Hindu bhakts of Fake Sikh Baba Ram Rahim and 4 of Fake godman Rampal.
    But develop cold feet on killing kashmiri muslim stone pelting and injuring our brothers in army.
    Our govt has to shed congress ecosystem and approach because soft approach of killing only terrorists and chest beating with not heLp.

    We must start killing pakistan army men, let us make them bleed.
    Bomb their nucLear plants.
    Bomb their Jem and let headquarters.
    Mere trumpeting about surgical strike on terrorist will not help.
    Strike pakistan army, kill 10,000 of them.
    Make the pakistan a ruined state.
    Reclaim POK.
    Modi ji, No more big words but real action. Please 🙏🙏🙏🙏

    Bharat Mata Ki Jai
    Vande Mataram
    🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳
    🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩
    🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. *But develop cold feet on killing kashmiri muslim pelters who seriously injure our brothers in army.

      *Bomb their Jaish E Mohammed and Lashkar E Taiba (Jamaat Ud Dawa) headquarters

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  2. One thing I'm quite intrigued often is the political leaders' attempts to hide behind armed forces in times like this. It could mean:

    (i) They are clueless about the response and strategy and simply pass the buck to the army.
    (ii) They have some strategy, but would like army to take the front line to get allround support (very few would question army) or to use them as convenient scapegoat in case their plan goes awry.
    (iii) They don't care about security and would like to let army pick-up the blame.
    (iv) They purposefully don't want any agency to do anything about security and again would like the army to be the scapegoat for public venting their anger.

    I don't know into which category all the governments of past 70 years stand. Hope MC will shed some light in one of his next posts.

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  3. "woh chahe jitna bhi chipne ki koshish kare" "bandook pakadne wala bhi aur pakadaane wala bhi" - it can't be said more clear than this.. i.e. without laying out the plan bare

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  4. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  5. Only solution is plebiscite...among whole Indian population to ask, whether to end pak army, isi rule and take back and merge pak into India.

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  6. it is note worthy that our courts are filled with urban naxals if their judgments sitting even at odd hours to favor the bar maid and her party and granting bail for different high court warrant anti Hindu judgments and the bail extension repeatedly are any indication in the first place.
    moreover, it is to be read worthy the trailing:
    VERY SENSIBLE POST FROM AN ARMY COLONEL:
    ��������������

    The horrible terror attack in Pulwama has been carefully planned by anti India and anti Modi forces. The time is also such where Modi Govt is forced to act in a very short time. With election announcement due soon, the Govt has window of merely of 30 to 45 days. And they need to plan something spectacular and major in order to show “avenge”. This is politically decisive for Modi’s reelection. The Modi supporters are and will be most forceful in demanding such revenge and spectacle. They are right in their own earnest. But some aspects need serious thinking.

    In such scenario, a democratic Govt has limited options. One, go for a total war in a very short time, which will have military, international and economic outfalls of catastrophic levels. A hurriedly planned war can result into a disaster for an attacker. Any war needs at least six months of planning and preparation. In current scenario, politically, Modi doesn’t have that window. And the problem may still not be solved.
    Two, go for another surgical strike; even a surgical strike needs careful planning of three to six weeks, again, time is not enough. Any major casualties in such strike will bring glees to faces of anti Modi politicians and off course anti Indian forces of all kinds.

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  7. contd:
    Third, as demanded or wished by large number on radical nationalists, angry common citizens (mostly BJP supporters) or instigating politicians like Surjewala, is, to go for revengeful killings in Kashmir, “order” killing of Hurriyats, politicians and anyone or everyone who has supported the terror groups and separatists ever.
    Well, very fine, but these “supporters” also need to think that how can Modi can “order” such killings? And whom will he order?? Indian capacity to carry out black ops had been rendered to almost zero in past three decades. And it takes almost similar time to build a reliable one. Modi only has democratic forces to support him. So which Army officer, IAS or IPS will he chose to carry out such black ops? Have we forgotten about Gujarat, Ishrat Jahan or Sohrabuddin cases? Have we forgotten about IPS’s like Sanjeev Bhatt and Rajiv Kumar, or IASs like SK Sharma and Chandrakala??? Or whole lot of army officers who have silently/vocally been wishing demise of Modi at the soonest??
    What is the guarantee that one of our own “officer”, who may have been “ordered” or got a whiff of any such order, will not come back to haunt Modi (or any other democratic leader) on behest of same pack of legal political wolves and same judiciary which happily obliges such people? Why would any sane person take such risks at a time when he is not even sure that large number of unthankful and short term greedy voters will even elect him again. He may be out of power soon and any such action will surely take him to gallows in his own country. The “Mahathagbandhan” will be very happy to bring such “justice” on Modi or any of the officer who will stand for him in such operation. They will be promptly supported by international forces and cabal of “demons (humans) right lobbyists. Amit Shah or Vanjara can never forget their jail days where no system in their own country supported them despite being innocent. Imagine if they were actually found guilty??? You think Congress and its stooges will think twice to hang them to death? Or you think SC will open at 2.00 AM to save them from gallows. ABSOLUTELY NO.
    Modi has been bitten once, and they say, “once bitten, twice shy”. Don’t expect any such move from him, please. Specially if you are TRUE MODI BHAKT.

    The call of the time is to keep quiet for three to four months, re-elect Modi with full majority and give him time frame to revenge this dastardly attack in a democratic manner, nice, long and sustained operation against anti indian forces to ensure that they are finished to last weed. No other politician can do that for you, ONLY MODI can. - Col Mool Bhargava, 15 Feb 2019

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    Replies
    1. A good and practical perspective.

      Delete
    2. You are thinking like modiji.

      Think from a nationalist's point of views.

      Because no modi or leader is bigger than nation.

      Elections can be postponed to 6 months. Existence and security of a country is important.

      World is supporting us, for the first time within 2 days, US and Israel stated that India has full right to take measures to defend.

      This is golden opportunity, China will not escalate because CPEC turned out to be a misadventure for them. They will be more than happy to see POK merged with India than invest in a failed economy of islamic state. Look how Chinese investors are feeling choked up.

      Time is right now.

      Nuke pakistan or at least bomb
      headquarters of terrorism breeders.

      देश रहेगा तो पॉलिटिक्स और मोदीजी जैसे ईमानदार नेता रहेंगे।

      भारत माता की जय
      🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳

      Delete
  8. This attack is like a double edged sword for Modi and intrestingly for the opposition too. First lets look at the opposition, they have adopted a two pronged approach with RG extending support but his cronies like their IT head taking an opposite view (and we are supposed to believe that a low ranking idiot could publicly take a contrarian view against Pappu and his sister). If there is an escalation in animosity, they will be caught in two minds...
    As to Modi, his enenmies are trying to pin him at an inconvenient time hoping that his inaction woukd nullify his positive image built on the strength of surgical strike. However they are also wary of Modi's caoacity to come up with his jadoo, that would make him win tbe Lok sabha eoections, hands down

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  9. Naxals and Urban Naxals have NOTHING to do with the so called equality and Bullshit. They are Just a Drug, Child pornography, organ traffickers, women trafficker and prostitution Mafia of the evil, vile abominable white klannist ideology of genocide called Xtianity. They are just killers of evil church and Italian,offshoot of Italian Mafia, and covering their vile evil deeds for benifit of their White Maa ke Yaar with a veneer of ideology of Satan.90% of these Urban Naxals are Pakipanjabis and Bdeshi Bongs, who are Xtians. Products of worst of Gora White barbarian thug sent by the imperialist thugs and equally white d..k crazed slags..Even now Dallo ki Dilli (filled with these Pakipanjabi, bdeshi vermin), only produces suspiciously whiter, whiter sewer filth, with white supremacist barbarity of these abominable genetic scoundrels, more than worst of Dr Mengels or conquistadors Columbus. All these Bela Bhatias, pbhushans, Indira Jaisinghs,raghav Bahl, Aroon Puries, Anupama Chopras,...... are all these Pakipanjabi sewer filth from pak.
    1. Naxals till 2004 were ONLY ACTIVE in Andhra even attacked NCBN then CM of Andhra. As soon as the Christian YSR was placed on throne of Andhra by White skinned foreigner Sonia on Vatican instruction, they disappeared overnight from Andhra only to appear in BJP ruled Chattisgarh
    2. The so called Naxals and their Urban Naxals Mafia caporegimes are ALL FOREIGNER OUTSIDERS categories known as best loyal dogs of Whites, Padrivadis, Pakipanjabis, Bong Kayasths and beefbrahmins, Kerala Xtians and commies (mostly prds of Arabs where Kerala die to go and clean gutters)and Iranians (Parsis) who served Goras with distinction (had they instead of Blacks etc were slavetraded Slaver would have been so willing that there would have been a stigma to non sexslaves and slaves attached today) ALL FILTY RICH MAFIOISI
    3. Naxals very willingly carried out the orders of the Padri with Condom type caps and Italian Sonia..The killing of Swami Lakshmananda who was helping the poor tribals and was a sore to missionaries. John Dayal, Sonia Maino, erstwhile Head of World Vision and a cu..t convert Radhakant Nayak-Italian Vatican appointee to Rajya sabha are named in FIR still roaming free. Italian Nazi slaves do not believe in EC, CAG, SCI, Courts, CBI, Indian Army, Indian IAS, ED, CBI but Italians Pakipanjabi slave MMS a begger rattlesnake Pakipanjabi, (WHO OWED HIS POSITION TO BEING SO CALLED SIL OF A ITALIAN AMERICAN WHITE WHARTON BEEBEE) from PAK found his voice of being ÄSHAMED TO BE INDIAN"-as soon as HOLY ITALY PROTESTED AGAINST HINDUS
    4. ALL CONGI LEADERS KILLED IN CHATTISGARH AMBUSH DURING 2013 ELECTIONS WERE ALL HINDU LEADERS, V C SHUKLA, NETAM..CHRISTIAN AJIT JOGI WAS IN CONG THAT TIME, and he excused himself suspiciously 5 mins before attack, and it has also been exposed that Half White, foreign spouse C..t Xtian Jairam Ramesh was in Chattisgarh Jungles for 6 days before ambush.. Sonia plan to eliminate Hindu leaders so that Xtian Jogi could be made CM on Church direction,in case Italian Church Mafia wins?
    5. As soon as even the barbaric CPIM withdrew from UPA I by magic Naxals emerged in WB in the name of separate Kamatipur and a landmine attack happened even on BuddhOdeb Bhuttocharya then CM of WB. Now they have disappeared in thin air?

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  10. Khangree intentionally never purchased any weapons for defense forces,so they they can continue to be slaves of west, continuously devalue our currency resulting in unending sweat to pay the dues back & west can rule India endlessly , while Khangress safely purchased many landmark residential properties in London.
    Today India has NO money to buy bamboo sticks. The govt is unable to reveal or accept or communicate this matter to Indian citizens. Time for Indians to work for nation building with higher taxes, so that army can buy modern weapons.

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  11. Army action in anti-terrorist opearations are generally ruthless. Opposition parties, Human rights agencies and such other institutions have to keep their mouth shut in the larger interest of the nation. This is one way. Another way is to bring back the wayward youth of Kashmir Valley. Pakistan is fooling the world when it says that no terrorist operations have its support. What about the leaders of these terrorist opranisations who reside there and who brainwash these young Kashmiris?. Is it a failure that we are not able to explain to the nations of the world the truth?. How then to de-brief these misled youngsters?. Can we not turn the world opinion to appreciate our point of view. An Independent Kashmir is a sitting duck for Pakistan-China combine. Can't we make Kashmir youths see reason?. Is it that difficult? India has a sizable Muslim population whose leaders are comfortable here. Can;t they speak for the nation which feeds them?. Can't they help in the rehabibitation of the misguided youth?.

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